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About The Author: Maggie Mae
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duration 86minute. Zoe Chao. 148 Vote. countries USA. info Barely escaping an avalanche during a family ski vacation in the Alps, a married couple is thrown into disarray as they are forced to reevaluate their lives and how they feel about each other. Inspired by the motion picture FORCE MAJEURE by Ruben Östlund. Release Year 2020. Producers: How much CGI should we use for the flight sequences? Tom Cruise: No. DAVID <3. Full SHIT video. Ok but can we talk about that guy at 1:26. Scarlett is so hot and always will be. Congrats man! That's incredible, for 39min downhill. Dave great to see you tackling some more new to you trails, Eastridge is ace and glad you enjoyed riding there so much, keep pushing yourself mate. UPDATE #2 Actual Anni Rates Actual Anni rates have been added. There were minor differences, but the overall analysis remains the same. UPDATE Theoretical Anni Rates I've been provided theoretical Anni rates by /u/WootieOPTC, so I'm putting the update right at the top. Link for the blind cause there really aren't that many comments in the thread. The data has been graphed in a very THICC black line, unmissable. My analysis is provided there as well. In short, Anni seems very average. Still better than the Countdown Sugo, just saying. Again, rates are THEORETICAL and may change when Anni officially begins Introduction Hello everyone! Some of you might know me (JP players in particular). I’ve been collecting JP Sugofest Rates data over the past year or so and created a calculator to help you calculate the probability of you pulling what you want. You can find these in the subreddit wiki here. Now over the past few months, with all of this data in hand, I’ve also been working on a solving a particular problem – how do we determine if a Sugofest is “Good” or “Bad”? Was the New Years Sugo the absolute best Sugo that ever was and ever will be? Was the “All Red” Sugo really that Legendary? Hint: It’s average at 5 multis and is only “good” if you went the full 10 multis in A topic I’m sure that’s at the forefront of the entire Global Community. I’ve been teasing this recently, so without further ado, I present to you a tool to objectively compare the rates between different Sugofests CLICK THIS LINK -> NORMALIZED RATES WITH DYNAMIC GRAPHS <- CLICK THIS LINK Anyone impatient and who don’t care about the details can skip to the end of this post, check out the instructions and check out the new resource I’ve linked above, which I created with the assistance of /u/WootieOPTC, who’s my counterpart expert on Global Sugo rates. Many thanks for the data and feedback you provided:) The Problem Bandai discloses rates in a manner that discourages players from actually checking the rates. What could be disclosed in a short table is instead copy pasted over thousands of lines in several different pages, with the important rates that you actually care about buried and difficult to obtain. Not to mention, they also change the structure of the rates on a whim with no announcement whatsoever, such as when they introduced the Tier system into the JP server. But even if you can extract the rates and provide them in a compact table, the numbers aren’t exactly… useful. Because while they provide the “base rate” (i. e. the rate for each normal individual pull in the multi), different Sugos have different step ups and discounts. These factors impact the rates dramatically. For example, suppose you really want Legend Bullet. If Bandai discloses a 0. 3% rate for Bullet on Sugo A with shitty step ups and 0. 2% rate for Bullet on Sugo B with really good step ups, can you really tell if Sugo A is better or Sugo B? What if Sugo B also has 30 gem discounts for 2 of the multis? Etc. As a result, Bandai is able to hide a LOT of information from the players, even though everything is “technically” disclosed, because of the amount of work that needs to be done to extract all of the information and to make the data “useful”. What are “Normalized Rates”? I’m relying on the OPTC principle of “one and done” – that is unlike other Gacha games, even the biggest of whales in OPTC don’t really care about dupes. As long as we pull 1 copy, that is as good as pulling 10 copies. For instance, if the base rate for a unit is 0% and on the 1st multi there is a 30% chance of pulling it on pull #11, then your overall probability of pulling the unit in 1 multis is 30% (and the probability of NOT pulling it is then 70%). What if instead, the 30% rate is spread out across the 11 pulls? Suppose R is this spread out rate. Then (1 – R) ^ 11 = P(not pulling it) = 70% R = 1 – 0. 7 ^ (1/11) = 3. 19% That is to say, this deal gives you the same chance to pull this unit if you did 1 multi with a base rate of 3. 19% instead of 0% base rate with 30% rate on step 1. Now suppose that this 3. 19% rate Sugo has a 30 gem discount on the first multi. To make that comparable with standard 50 gem multis, we have to adjust it somehow, because you’re getting extra value with the 20 gem discount. 30 gems will normally buy you 3/5ths of a multi, or 6. 6 pulls. We can adjust for that as follows (1 – R’) ^ 6. 6 = P((not pulling it) = 70% R’ = 1 – 0. 7 ^ (1/6. 6) = 5. 26% The probability of you pulling the unit did not change, but this R’ now reflects the additional value you obtained from the discount. This 30 gem multi with 3. 19% rate has the same value as a 50 gem multi with a 5. 26% rate. This is what I call the NORMALIZED RATE, and is the basis of the document, which lists out normalized rates across many different Sugos on JP and on Global. Comparison with other Gacha games So one remark I’ve seen often is that OPTC has notoriously lower rates than other Gacha games. While this does have some merit, it relies on the base rates that Bandai discloses, which I’ve addressed above as inaccurate. This is because of how the step ups are not included in these numbers, while they are included in the Normalized Rate. Which means, not only can you use Normalized Rates to compare across banners in OPTC, you can also compare it with rates from other Gacha games (Dokkan being a notorious example). We have one final adjustment however if we want to compare it with 10-pull Gachas, as OPTC is built on an 11-pull system. But don’t worry, the adjustment is simple. If the Normalized Rate is 0. 5%, then to adjust for 10-pull instead of 11-pull, all we have to do is multiply by 1. 1. As in, the comparable rate across games is then 0. 55%. The Document I’ve linked it above, but I’ll link it here again For the full features, I’d recommend you to make a copy into your own Google Drive. Thanks to unwarranted bugs when switching between Google Sheets and Excel Alternatively you can download an Excel version of the document. Essentially, it boils down to 3 main features Dynamic Graphs Normalized Rates Cumulative Probabilities To explain some brief terminology: JP Tier 1 Recently released Legends (about 7 months) that have the lowest rates JP Tier 2 Legends released up to about 1 year and 9 months ago, not including Tier 1 Legends JP Tier 3 (not present in the data) Oldest Legends in the game with the highest rates Global Tier B Newer Legends that have lower rates (so akin to JP Tier 1 / 2) Note that for JP, I have restricted the data to Debut Rates and Tier 1 / Tier 2 Legends in special Sugos (i. e 2x or better). Dynamic Graphs Since I’m sure most of you are not fond of entire walls of numbers, this is the (hopefully) user friendly and visual representation of the data. Since this is Global’s 5th Anniversary, the data for select Global Sugos is presented by default. Including several recent 2x+ Sugos, the notorious “All Red” and New Years Sugos, the 4th Anniversary and the current “Countdown to Anni” Sugofest. If you’ve made a copy or downloaded the document, you can use the drop down menus to select whichever Sugos you’d like to compare, up to 15. Especially for JP players who want to see how downhill the Sugos have been headed in recent months (hint: New Years and Nami/Robin were awful). While you can compare 15 Sugos at a time, I’d recommend to keep It at just a few (say 5 or so), because it gets incredibly difficult to read the graph if there are too many lines. I’d also recommend you to select the graph and hover over any lines to see the actual data in case you can’t tell which line references which Sugo by the color. 2. Normalized Rates You can access all of the numerical data for the normalized rates. While you might be thinking, “why would I ever look at the wall of numbers instead of using the graphs”, there are some benefits. For example, you can look at all of the Sugos at once instead of just a limited number of lines. Second, you can SORT the data (even in View Only mode). For example, if you are a F2P player who tends to go 6 multis deep every major celebration but no more, you can sort the rates Z->A by multi #6, which will show you the best Sugos to have gone 6 multis deep on. Once the current Anni rates are known, you can then compare – if you go 6 multis deep on this Anni, how much value are you getting out of it compared to other Sugos in the past? Is this Anni truly the worst one yet? 3. Cumulative Probabilities This is another tool that people may be interested in. If you want to pull a specific Legend and can afford to do 9 multis, for example the debut Legend (say Kaido), this will tell you the probability of pulling Kaido in 9 multis. Note that this number does not factor in any discounts, so it isn’t necessarily accurate for comparison purposes across banners (use Normalized Rates for that). For instance, the Cumulative Probabilities for the Global New Years Sugo is very low compared to the others, but that’s because this doesn’t factor in the fact that there were HUGE discounts for this Sugo. TLDR Use this document to compare if a Sugo is “Good” or “Bad” relative to other Sugos. Download/make a copy and play around with it. Have fun! I hope this was helpful to many people in making their Sugofest decisions (and not just the numerically literate lol). Good luck to everyone and have fun this Anniversary!

Abi her videonda merdivende yada yolda hızlı giderken ön kaldırdığınızda ben korkuyom mk siz nasıl korkmuyonuz ? D.

So ein verdammt geiles Edit ich kann nicht mehr🥵

OLUM 5.13 te nasıl bi whip o. E esse ET NA BOX AI, so tapa :3. Is this your idea of fun Mav. Please just go watch the original. Song at 3:53. What is this Song? Love the las 40 Seconds nice Hardstyle sound. Random af Welcome to the beginning of a new decade. Erik fedko vs Lukas knopf. Reis arka aktarıcın ne. Husband: sees pile coming Husband: dont worry Ill go get help What the husband really thinking: aight imma head out.

The GR10-Xtrem is a 93km ultramarathon, it follows a waymarked trail, called the GR10, through the hills of Valencia. I signed up to the GR10-Xtrem as a test race for a bigger race I have lined up in April, the Northern Traverse. I picked the GR10-Xtrem because it was outside the UK, I didn't want to race in the cold, wet, and dark British winter. The course profile roughly matches a single day of the Northern Traverse, which is 305km that I'm aiming to complete in 3 days. Goals My goal going into the race was to finish without getting injured, I needed to continue training for the Northern Traverse. I gave myself a minimum time of 12 hours, if I was on track for finishing faster than that I was probably going too fast and likely to blow up. I also didn't want to drop below 18 hours, I didn't want to be chasing cut-offs, the cut-off time was at 19 hours. I didn't know where within that 12 to 18-hour range was a reasonable finish time, obviously, I wanted to be closer to the 12-hour mark than the 18-hour mark. Setting off The race started quickly, I made an effort not to get carried away, I didn't try and keep up with those around me and I let myself fall back. After 2km the trail narrowed and started climbing, queues formed and my pace was now being set by those in front of me. I understood why there had been such a rush at the start. I made a few passes where I could but mostly had to just stick with the group pace. The first third of the race was the hardest part of the course, with the most climbing and technical terrain. At one point there was even steep scrambling that involved pulling on fixed chains. Despite the difficulty, or perhaps because of the difficulty, this first third of the race flew by. There was a short section of steep scrambling Strengths and weaknesses Vertical I found that I was much stronger than those around me on the uphills, most were slowly walking the uphills. I found I could happily power hike the steeper hills or slowly run the more gentle hills. My weakness was on the downhills, I was often overtaken by the runners I'd just passed on the uphill. I suffered from painful soreness in my quads, for many days, following the race. I've discovered this is often caused by running lots of downhills without being conditioned to them. The eccentric contraction of the downhill is very stressful. My training so far hasn't contained very much vertical, most of my training is in Manchester city centre which is pretty flat. Climbing Eating I went in planning to eat a small amount every hour, I vaguely stuck to this plan for the first half of the race. I didn't feel hungry and had to make a conscious effort to eat, but I didn't have any stomach problems when I ate. I think it's important to eat as much as you can early on in long races, while your stomach can handle it. The midway checkpoint had a bigger variety of food and was set up as a bit of a lunch stop. I decided to eat a bit more than I had at previous checkpoints. I scoffed a couple of chocolate spread sandwiches and a bit of everything else on the table. I soon regretted eating so much, leaving the checkpoint I felt full and sluggish. I also didn't take on enough water and could tell I was getting quite dehydrated. I found that the overeating affected me mentally more than physically, my pace didn't change drastically but I was feeling miserable. I held off eating for a while and gradually felt better. At the next checkpoint, 2/3 of the way through the course, I just ate oranges to take on some liquid, and easy to digest sugar at the same time. Plenty of oranges at the checkpoints Finish KM 78 It got very cold leaving the 78km checkpoint, it was up at 1, 000m and climbing to 1, 300m and it was on the shady side of the mountain with the sun setting. My fingers got painfully cold, I stopped to put my gloves on but could only find one. I spent a long time, stopped, searching with awkward numb fingers. In the end, I wrapped my hand in my windshirt and carried on. I don't know if this demonstrates smart thinking, or if the fact that I couldn't find my glove (which I hadn't actually lost) shows that I wasn't fully switched on this late into the race. Getting chilly at sunset KM 84 I felt pretty good from the 78km checkpoint onwards, my stomach had sorted itself out, and I had managed to take on a good amount of food and liquid. I approached the last checkpoint with a strong plan. I didn't need to stop, I was carrying enough water to get me to the end and I didn't need any more food. That plan fell apart immediately, as I approached the checkpoint I was ushered inside. People started offering me water, I said yes, I saw the food and I started eating. I was still in and out reasonably quickly but it wasn't what I had planned. KM 93 I looked at my watch and saw that the finish line was just around the corner, I put on a little surge up the hill I was on, I turned the corner and entered an empty street. I didn't understand, I kept following the markers and went off the end of my GPS track. The finish line was one confusing kilometer away, I still don't know what happened, if I had downloaded an old GPS track, or if I'd missed something in the Spanish briefing (I don't speak Spanish). This confusion made the finish a bit underwhelming, I had lost my rush of excitement. Still, I was happy to have finished. I finished in 13 hours 48 minutes. Just finished Lessons Learnt The race was a good tester for the Northern Traverse, I learnt some important lessons. It's given me confidence in my 3-day target, I feel like the slower pace needed to complete the Northern Traverse in 3 days shouldn't be too taxing as long as I can improve my downhill ability. Increase efficiency through preperation My running vest is the 2016 model of the Inov-8 Race Elite, which has small front pockets, but no large side or back pockets. Trying to access food or equipment, from the main compartment, on the go was very awkward. On the Northern Traverse, I will need to eat a lot more on the go as there are only a few checkpoints, very far apart. I will experiment with adding some accessible stretch pockets to my bag. So that I can make most of what I need accessible when I stop at a checkpoint, then I can eat or change clothes on the go efficiently. During the GR10X I wasn't arriving at checkpoints with a clear plan, and when I did have I plan I ignored it. There will be fewer checkpoints at the Northern Traverse, but with tents, proper cooked food and warmth on offer, there's a lot of potential to lose minutes or hours if I'm not focused. I will prepare and print checklists that I can follow at the checkpoints, this will let me avoid thinking and make it easier to be disciplined at the checkpoints. Do more vertical As mentioned above, my biggest weakness during the race was on the downhills, and my biggest problem I had after the race was 4 days of painful soreness in my quads. Going forward, the focus of my training will be to accrue as much vertical as I can. This will involve long runs in the Peak District on the weekend, and finding short hills, close to home, to repeat on weekdays.

Renato olha la no isntagran do downhill almenara kkkkkk. Can a have some stoke in my stocking, by the way i lv these vids post more. When a Christopher Nolan film doesnt have Hans Zimmer doing the score Wait thats illegal. These people are so brave and amazing! Meanwhile I'm struggling to go up gutters in city bike lanes 😂. Taika Waititi = New Mel Brooks. 12:47 that be a sick wallpaper. Nolan : Yes Interviewer : Is this movie about time travelling. Me dar uma bake pf.

Koray tr95 sanırım özlememişim demek istedin. Daha uzun video gelsin 😄😄. Why am I just seeing this 😭. OMG I am sorry I couldn't watch sooner didn't get the notification and plus u are the best rider in the work u have inspired me to get a mountain bike get new shocks/handle bars/ grips and pedals I'll send you the before and after photo on Twitter thx. Renato cadê o desafio de uma noite na casa da criatura. 그르지말자 무셔 ㅜㅜ.

 

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2. https://ameblo.jp/patagataka/entry-12578662507.html
3. edu.apps01.yorku.ca/alumni/groups/for-free-downhill-watch-movie
4. https://edu.apps01.yorku.ca/alumni/groups/watch-here-watch-full-downhill/
5. https://gufy.blogia.com/2020/022904--10029-yesmovies-10029-downhill-full-movie.php
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7. https://nicordesa.blogia.com/2020/022902-downhill-free-online-streaming-online-720px-mojo-dailymotion.php
8. https://form.run/@without-paying-downhill-watch-full-length
9. https://edu.apps01.yorku.ca/alumni/groups/youtube-full-movie-downhill/
10. estrellacoslada.blogia.com/2020/022904-openload-movie-online-force-majeure.php